Take multiple measures to solve the challenge of new energy development
Since the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan", China’s installed capacity of new energy power generation has ranked first in the world for many years and has become the main body of power installation. However, in recent years, high-quality industrial development still faces challenges.
By the end of 2024, the installed capacity of scenery in China exceeded 1.4 billion kilowatts, accounting for 42% of the total installed capacity in China, an increase of 157% compared with 2020, and the target of 1.2 billion kilowatts in 2030 was achieved six years ahead of schedule. Among them, 293 million kilowatts will be added in 2023 and 358 million kilowatts will be added in 2024. China Electricity Council predicts that by the end of 2030, the total installed capacity of scenery in China will exceed 2.5 billion kilowatts. However, the amount of abandoned wind and light has increased. At the same time, the transaction price continued to decline. The average settlement price of new energy continued to decline. China Electricity Council predicts that in the next three years, with the large-scale operation of spot electricity, the transaction price of new energy will further decline. Affected by the continuous decline in electricity prices, many new energy projects have shown a situation of "increasing production without increasing income and reducing profits". In 2024, 30 power generation enterprises in China listed and transferred new energy power generation assets, which aroused great concern in society.
In the early stage of China’s new energy development, the scale of new energy development exceeded the power grid’s bearing capacity and economic and social absorption capacity, and the average utilization rate continued to decline. In 2016, the national rate of abandoning wind and light reached 16%, which attracted great attention from the state and society. In 2017, the state successively issued policies such as "Implementation Plan for Solving the Problem of Abandoning Water, Wind and Light" and "Notice on Establishing a Monitoring and Early Warning Mechanism to Promote the Sustainable and Healthy Development of Wind Power Industry", established a monitoring and early warning mechanism for new energy investment, and made clear the red early warning area (the comprehensive score is lower than 60 points or the rate of abandoning wind and light is higher than 10%) to suspend new project indicators, approval and development; Orange warning area (comprehensive score of 60-80 points or abandoned wind and light rate of 5%-10%) to suspend the issuance of construction indicators. After continuous rectification, from 2018 to 2023, the average power abandonment rate of new energy will be controlled within 5% for five consecutive years. However, in the past two years, problems such as the rapid growth of new energy installed capacity, the rising rate of abandoning wind and light, and the sharp drop in investment income have once again become prominent. It is urgent to take effective measures to promote the high-quality development of new energy power generation industry.
Strengthen macro-policy control. Call on the state to introduce supporting policies as soon as possible, list areas with poor consumption as red warning areas (such as abandoning wind and light for more than 10%), and suspend the issuance of indicators, approval and development. Improve the dynamic adjustment mechanism of power planning, reasonably control the pace of index issuance, guide enterprises to invest in an orderly manner, and avoid "involution" competition and inefficient and ineffective investment. Improve the system of promoting the consumption of new energy and implement the responsibility of new energy consumption.
Accelerate the supporting construction of power grid. Build a strong smart grid, promote the upgrading of power grids in the province, connect power grids among provinces, and improve the cross-section constraints and local power-trapping phenomenon. We will improve the development model of "Three North Areas" and "Large Base+UHV", and steadily promote the construction of large base and regional UHV lines according to the power development situation of Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other coastal provinces to ensure large-scale and high-proportion new energy delivery. Improve the comprehensive regulation capacity of the power grid, promote the transformation of thermal power to "regulated power supply", optimize the proportion of peak-shaving configuration of thermal power, and promote the construction of pumping and storage projects in an orderly manner.
Optimize the electricity trading mechanism. Implement the "Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy On-grid Electricity Price to Promote the High-quality Development of New Energy" (No.136 Document) to ensure the smooth transition of electricity price. Optimize the mechanism of new energy participating in spot trading and set the lower price limit. Improve the inter-provincial trading mechanism of new energy, unify trading rules and standards, and explore ways to expand the trading scope and cover the main body. Improve the green card market and explore the mechanism of compulsory green electricity consumption quota.
(The author is the deputy secretary and general manager of the Party Committee of State Power Investment Wuling Electric Power Co., Ltd.)